Manager, RLC Forecasting and Demand Planning

About the Role

The Forecasting and Demand Planning Manager will develop a data‑informed five‑year industry outlook and a Carrier‑specific demand‑sensing outlook for the North America Residential and Light Commercial markets. Working closely with the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team, the role monitors industry trends, competitive dynamics, and emerging opportunities, and partners with the Climate Solutions Americas Strategy Director, executive leadership, and cross‑functional teams to shape both near‑term and long‑range demand planning. Key responsibilities include maintaining and refining forecasting models for the monthly Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) process, the Annual Operating Plan, and the long‑range plan; pressure‑testing forecasts for achievability; generating scenario analyses; and collaborating with S&OP personnel to balance demand and supply constraints. The manager will track forecast accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE, maintain PowerBI/QuickSight dashboards with red‑flag metrics, integrate regulatory changes and market intelligence, and work with distributors and OEM partners to validate assumptions. Opportunities to leverage AI and new data sources, as well as clear communication of complex information to varied audiences, are also emphasized. • Develop and maintain five‑year industry outlook and short‑term demand‑sensing forecasts for North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC markets. • Refine forecasting models for monthly S&OP, Annual Operating Plan, and long‑range planning, including pressure‑testing and scenario analysis. • Generate supplemental forecast scenarios (upper, lower, baseline) using sensitivity analysis on key variables. • Collaborate with Sales & Operations Planning teams to create balanced monthly demand forecasts. • Monitor forecast accuracy with KPIs such as MAPE and continuously improve model performance. • Build and maintain PowerBI/QuickSight dashboards with red‑flag metrics for senior leadership. • Incorporate regulatory changes (e.g., SEER2, refrigerant transition) and market intelligence into forecasting models. • Engage with distributors, dealer councils, and OEM partners to gather demand signals and validate assumptions. • Identify and deploy AI tools and new data sources to enhance model accuracy. • Communicate complex data insights clearly to diverse audiences through written and oral presentations.

Key Responsibilities

• ▸demand forecasting
• ▸model refinement
• ▸scenario analysis
• ▸dashboard development
• ▸ai integration
• ▸stakeholder engagement

What You Bring

Required qualifications are a bachelor’s degree, at least five years of experience creating executive‑level summaries and presentations, advanced proficiency in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint, and a strong background in demand planning and forecasting. Preferred qualifications include a master’s degree in a related field, experience with business‑intelligence tools (Power BI, Tableau, ThinkCell, Kinaxis), statistical modeling or data‑science tools such as Python or SAS, deep knowledge of U.S. and Canadian HVAC regulations and market dynamics, and the ability to act quickly with a bias for action. • Required: Bachelor’s degree, 5+ years in demand planning/forecasting, advanced Excel and PowerPoint skills. • Preferred: Master’s degree, experience with Power BI, Tableau, Python/SAS, HVAC industry knowledge, macroeconomic analysis, virtual collaboration.

Requirements

• ▸bachelor's
• ▸5+ years
• ▸excel
• ▸powerbi
• ▸tableau
• ▸python

Benefits

Carrier offers comprehensive benefits, including medical, dental, vision, wellness incentives, retirement plans, generous paid time off, disability, life insurance, tax‑advantaged accounts, and tuition assistance. The salary range for this position is $18,000–$165,000, with short‑term cash incentives subject to plan requirements. Carrier is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action employer, and all qualified applicants will be considered without regard to protected characteristics.

Work Environment

Office Full-Time